Papers

• Assessing the Threats of Returnees and Deportees from Syria Chaula Anindya Nanyang Technological University

  This article seeks to assess the potential threats posed by returnees and deportees in Indonesia. National Police Chief Tito Karnavian claimed over 1100 Indonesians have emigrated to Syria. Of those, 500 people remain in Syria, 103 have been killed in Syria, and around 500 people have returned to Indonesia. Their return to Indonesia has raised concerned about the likelihood of terror plots by both returnees and deportees. However, will they pose an immediate threat to the country? This article will use the framework of Daniel Byman (2016) on the potential danger and the actual threat posed by returning foreign fighters. The assessment will be based on the number of attacks done by returnees and deportees since the beginning of the Syrian war, legal frameworks, and deradicalisation programmes. This article suggests that the actual threats posed by returnees and deportees remain low given the historical yardstick and newly ratified law on terrorism. Indonesia must enhance law enforcement, as well as addressing the problems of prison management and deradicalisation programmes to prevent greater potential threats.

• Mapping the Role of Women in (Counter-)Violent Extremism in Poso: Preliminary Findings Mohammad Zaki Arrobi Universitas Gajah Mada Muhammad Najib Azca Universitas Gajah Mada

  The article will present preliminary findings of ongoing research on the role of women in (counter) violent extremism in Poso. It attempts to identify and to understand the various roles played out by women in the violent extremist groups in post-conflict Poso. It will also critically evaluate the current programs of deradicalization by state and non-state actors that targeting the (former) violent extremist both men and women. Contrary to the dominant discourse that locates women as merely the victim of violent extremist groups and ideology, the study attempts to look at the women’s agency and gender dynamics both in violent extremism and in counter violent extremism. the study has three main research questions that we seek to address: (1) how is the map of actor and group within women’s supporter of violent extremism?; (2) how are the roles of women in violent extremist groups and how their role shaped by gender dynamics?; (3) what are the key factors (push & pull factor) that promote and prevent women from involving in violent extremist groups? The research found that the involvement of women in violent extremist groups in Poso can be described into four different categories, such as active supporter, active preventer, passive supporter, and passive preventer. Each category has a different degree of agency both in supporting and preventing violent extremism at the family, community, and society level. Meanwhile, we identified three key drivers of women’s support and prevention for violent extremism, namely revenge, ideology, a combination of both, and pragmatism.

• Reinforcing the Status Quo? Indonesia’s Global Maritime Fulcrum and Its Implication to the Defence Sector Keoni Marzuki S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

  This article investigates the defence aspect of the GMF, arguably one of the more understudied topic and least understood aspect of the concept. Specifically, this article seeks to examine whether the GMF concept effect changes to Indonesia's defence sector or otherwise and to what extent does it impact the defence sector if any. This article discusses several vital aspects within Indonesia's defence sector, namely strategic and defence outlook, defence procurement and spending priorities, defence doctrine and strategy, and deployment patterns of the military, and assess if any changes have taken place following the adoption of GMF. This article argues that while the concept instil greater awareness of the maritime domain in Indonesia's strategic thinking, its impact in the defence sector is limited due to a host of factors, such as the administration almost exclusive focus on the economic aspect of the GMF; the indirect involvement and shifting priorities of the concept's principal architects, particularly in policy implementation; the Widodo's administration business-as-usual approach in defence policy programmes that often conflict or irrelevant to the GMF; and some institutional impediments in the defence establishment.

• The Role of the Indonesian Military in Indonesia’s Foreign Policy Formulation: The Case of the South China Sea Tiola Nanyang Technological University

  As the largest state in ASEAN, Indonesia and its foreign policy in the South China Sea play a key role in shaping the region’s dynamics. While numerous studies have been published on the issue, few have explored the role of the Indonesian Military (Tentara Nasional Indonesia —TNI) in the formulation of such policies. Indonesia's foreign policy itself is rarely a product of pure realism, but rather a result of internal dynamics and power struggles between various state institutions. However, beyond the bureaucratic infighting at the executive level, the TNI appears to have been influential in the issue — despite the law which bans them from participating in politics. In 2014, for instance, General Moeldoko, then-commander in chief of the TNI, stated that “Indonesia is dismayed … that China has included parts of the Natuna Islands [an Indonesian regency located in the South China Sea] within the nine-dash line, thus apparently claiming a segment of Indonesia's Riau Islands province as its territory.” This stands in contrast with the government's official stance, which emphasises that Indonesia does not have any overlapping territorial claim with China. Moreover, the TNI is also frequently involved in the deliberation process related to the South China Sea. The paper will explore the extent to which the military is influential in the formulation of Indonesia’s policies in the South China Sea. In so doing, I will identify key foreign policies related to the issue — such as accelerated military build-up in Natuna; as well as decisions related to joint military training with ASEAN and the United States — and examine the dynamic between the military and the executive bodies in producing these policies. The paper will then examine the implications and ‘lesson learned' from the case for other ASEAN countries.

Abstract

Keywords

• Future
• Indonesia
• Military
• Politics