Examining “Dutertenomics” in the Philippines: Historical and Comparative Perspectives
Time & LocationSession 1
Wed 09:00–10:30 Room 1.102
- Shingo Mikamo Shinshu University
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- Dutertenomics: Challenges for Financing Aspect of Infrastructure Development in the Philippines Susumu Ito Chuo University
This paper studies Dutertenomics of the Philippines, which is regarded as drastic policy shift in Public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure development. While Aquino administration focused on PPP-based infrastructure development as a priority policy, the Duterte administration launched "Dutertenomics", a large-scale infrastructure development plan of about 8 trillion pesos, about 160 billion USD, over 6 years in 2017 that mainly depends on national budget and ODA as financial source rather than PPP. This triggered the debate of "PPP vs ODA" in the Philippines. The paper discusses policy changes and directions of last four administrations since Ramos in the areas of law/ regulation, institution, finance, and specific sectors/ projects as a background of Dutertenomics. Among last four administrations, particular focus is given to PPP related policies and measures implemented by Aquino administration including regulatory and institutional reforms, project development fund, PPP fund and relaxation of single borrowers' limit. Then, Dutertenomics is argued from the viewpoint of 1) acceleration of infrastructure development, 2) shift from PPP to ODA, 3) hybrid PPP and 4) financial sources. Finally, policy recommendations are discussed based on assessment of current infrastructure related policy, regulation, and environment.
- Industrial Policy in the Time of Dutertismo Antoinette Raquiza University of the Philippines Diliman
In recent years, the Philippine government has set into motion what it has called a “new industrial policy” aimed at diversifying the bases of the country’s growth and jumpstarting structural transformation. Begun in 2011 with the government and industry leaders drawing up consolidated roadmaps, the thrust to promote the manufacturing sector continues under the Duterte administration. Today, the Department of Trade and Industry has two key programs: the Manufacturing Resurgence Program and the Inclusive, Innovation, Industrial Strategy (i3S), launched in 2014 and 2017, respectively. The current push for an industrial policy is the third such attempt since the import-substitution industrialization in the 1950s-60s and the 11 industrial mega-projects in the 1980s under the Marcos regime. Will the current attempt be able to break through historic problems that doomed the earlier attempts at industrialization? The presentation will argue that while the Philippines’ growth pattern provided the impetus for the revival of manufacturing, it also presents challenges to the sector’s expansion. Specifically, the country’s booming international trade in services has led to the expansion of the consumer class that, in turn, has provided a market for manufactured goods. On the other hand, this same pattern has led to the Dutch disease: currency flows in labor and services exports raise the costs of doing manufacturing in the country. The presentation will briefly touch on the country’s growth pattern and key features of the government’s industrialization drive and outline similarities and differences between today’s push and past experiences. It will conclude with the call for the need to reconfigure industrial policy in light of the rebalancing of the global economy. Among such suggested measures is for government to invest heavily in research and development.
- Neoliberal Dutertismo David Michael SanJuan De La Salle University
Duterte’s populist rhetoric partly won him the Philippine presidency in a crowded elections where choices don’t vary much. Despite constantly berating the previous dilawan (yellow conservative) second Aquino administration, Duterte’s economic policies are arguably as neoliberal as his predecessor’s. This paper will discuss Duterte’s subscription to neoliberalism in matters such as taxation, debt appropriations, public-private partnership in health care and education, and foreign investments.
- Radical Reforms with Fiscal and Monetary Policy Challenges Under the Duterte Presidency Shingo Mikamo Shinshu University
Can the Philippine President implement radical economic and political reforms within the 6 years term? This paper will examine the changes and continuities of fiscal and monetary policy and economic governance under the Duterte Presidency. President Duterte still has a radical political reform agenda toward federalism. However, there are still many obstacles to form a consensus on the political reform agenda. Without solving fiscal issues, considerable changes in the roles of national and local governments would be unrealistic. His ambitious “Build, Build, Build” project raised serious concerns about debt trap. Avoiding a risk of debt crisis is a united voice of influential Philippine businesses across sectors. The Duterte administration has been keen to push tax reforms. However, tax reform has been always one of top priorities of the past Philippine Presidents. Examining radical reformism of the Duterte Presidency will provide good testing cases for the level of institutionalization of economic policy making and governance in the Philippines.
Various economic policy and institutional reforms have been implemented in the past three decades in the Philippines. The Philippines is no longer seen as “sick man of Asia”. However, the process of alleviating poverty and reducing social inequality has been excruciatingly slow. More, because the restoration of electoral democracy in 1987 has yet to translate into improved quality of life for the majority, it has opened the door for a resurgence of strongman rule even as concerns for the deteriorating rule of law have grown. President Duterte has a unique leadership style and political agenda. With respect to economic policy, he emphasizes the ambitious infrastructural development plan “Build, Build, Build” as his economic strategy. His administration has also launched an ambitious “Manufacturing Resurgence Program”. In this panel, the issues of Dutertenomics will be examined from historical and comparative perspectives. How has President Duterte changed economic policy and governance? How do we assess Dutertenomics? What are lessons from Dutertenomics for the rest of Southeast Asian countries in the processes of developing economies and democratic governance? First, the foundation of Dutertenomics, arguably “neoliberalism”, is examined (by San Juan). And then, we analyze our focused economic policy areas that include industry and trade (by Raquiza), infrastructure development (by Ito) and fiscal and monetary policy (by Mikamo). This panel also will explore the interaction between government's infrastructure and industrialization programs and its fiscal and monetary policies.